We should be grateful to David McCann for doing the obvious, in this case subjecting Sinn Fein’s performance in last week’s UK General Election to a more rigorous examination and analysis than happened in the hours following the count.
What he discovered with a seat-by-seat analysis, was nothing less than an absolute disaster for Sinn Fein and evidence, perhaps, that the peace strategy developed by the Adams’ camp in the Provos is now running on the political equivalent of petrol fumes.
The strategy was based upon the theory that grateful constititional Nationalists, happy that Sinn Fein was embracing peace, would flock to the Provo cause in order to sustain and bolster the strategy’s architects so as to strengthen their hand against internal opponents.
There is no doubt that this worked initially but McCann’s analysis tends to show that the strategy is now running out of fuel. Satisfied that the Provos cannot, and no longer wish, to return to war, Nationalist voters are returning to their natural homes, i.e. the SDLP, or even the Alliance Party.
Here is his analysis which shows a significant drop for SF in every constituency bar North Belfast, not least in West Belfast, once the impregnable home of Northern Republicanism.
The media, to its shame, saw only North Belfast and missed the bigger message. In that regard they fell for an SF con, which almost worked. Here is the more detailed breakdown of the SF vote (a minus in every seat bar North Belfast):
This is interesting, and not particularly surprising. The DUP lost almost 50,000 vote compared to the 2017 general election, too.
I wonder if there can only be symmetry in the declining votes for SF and the DUP? I can’t imagine SF freefalling against a rampant and resurgent DUP, and vise versa.
I also suspect that SF not taking their seats has started to become something of an electoral liability.
I think SF abstentionism only appeals to their hardcore base and agree that it has probably become more of a liability than point of principle. Certainly the type voter they are attempting to appeal to it would see it as such.
As time goes on refusing to take their seats looks more and more pointless. SF use the title ‘MP’. They register as MPs and I presume are included in all correspondence at Westminster. By claiming expenses they will most certainly be part of the Westminster admin system. The only people to benefit from them not taking their seats is the current government. Fewer people refusing to take their seats means less opposition. Nothing would please Westminster more is the SNP also refused to take their seats.
Typo. That should read:
*More people refusing to take their seats means less opposition.
One can only shiver in anticipation of how the DUP will use this information to seize defeat from the mouth of victory and help protect their SF partners in political incompetence.
The media are only doing what they are told by London & Dublin. If evidence were needed just look at their efforts on the third world health service crisis currently dominating the headlines. The SoS could have ended it immediately ( as part of Boris’ One Nation government) but would rather people here suffered the ignomy of a return to Stormont.
A return of the clowns will just add injury to insult.
I would like to hear David McCann’s views on the internal conflict within the SDLP Westminster group over the SDLP/FF alliance. I bet Claire Hanna blinks first.
BTW the list is missing the figure for South Belfast, Claire Hanna’s constituency. Have Sinn Fein voters & supporters all left Queen’s University Belfast to Colin Harvey?
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